Friday, February 15, 2008

14/02/2008

Futures analysis
The last two trading sessions did not clarify, where are the futures are going to go from the March low level of 3125. Wednesday began from a gap down, but eventually buyers managed to take control and drove the price up to this pivotal point. Because of yesterday's gains in U.S. stock market, the futures posted today an upside gap above 3125, but for the most of the day, the trend was down and we are back at the starting point. The bulls are struggling to extend current pullback further to the upside, but in the wake of recent events (more growth concerns in America) this will take more time (if any). The August low is now corresponding with the declining 50-day moving average, so if the price stays in rather flat corrective pattern, then reaching 3265 might not occur whatsoever. Good thing for the bulls is that short term volatility stepped off again, 10- and 20-day moving averages have recently made a crossover, so there is definitely some room before the short term trend shifts again to the downside (at least above 3000 area).
As wednesday brought just a flat corrective pattern, that did not change the short term trend, today we had a downside violation of the rising trendline (plotted on the chart), that has been established over the last four days. The price found resistance at previous support level of 3190 and retraced from there to 3090-3125 area (both, upper and lower band are also prior support and resistance levels). As the short term uptrend switched to neutral, today's decline of american stock indexes puts further upside action in question. S&P declined over 1% and NASDAQ almost 2%. Depending yet on asian close, there might be an overnight gap to the downside tommorrow in WIG20 futures. If the price breaks down through 3090, then expect it to fall firstly to 3030 and if that level fails to hold, then to 2985, but that is longer term target.

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